When KPMG released their first white paper on self-driving cars in late 2012, we were surprised at how little thought they had given to the disruptive potential of fleets of driverless vehicles.They have corrected this now and a major headline and probably the guiding question of the report is: “Mobility on Demand: Why own a car?”
This year’s report begins with the realization that the “momentum around self-driving vehicles is astonishing”. The authors acknowledge that the “industry is moving even faster than we predicted”. They look at the variety and number of autonomy-related news events during the preceding months. They conclude that “the technology is evolving at a rapid pace”. While the industry is definitely gaining momentum, the statement may be a bit on the optimistic side with respect to the technology: If we sort through all the announcements and public demonstrations of some cars driving in some state of quite limited autonomy, we can not see that many significant advances have occurred in the past 12 months.
They then look at the history of the first automotive revolution and proceed to report insights from focus groups. This is useful but yields few real surprises (even auto enthusiasts are willing to use self-driving cars; tech brands such as Google are a little more trusted even than premium auto brands with respect to the technology).
The most interesting section deals with a potential decrease in car ownership: “If half of all American families who currently own two or more cars were to give up one of their vehicles, how would that affect the automotive industry”. They point out that the ratio between fleet and retail sales could “change dramatically”. Mobility costs could decrease for the consumer and big data and dynamic pricing will be a key capability for autonomous mobility providers. They also hint at adverse consequences for mass transit systems.
It is great that the major consulting companies are beginning to realize how disruptive this technology will be (and it is nice that they are coming around to a view that we already had published in early 2010 (Autonomous cars – the next revolution looms).
If the momentum continues to increase – which is very likely – next year’s report will be very different. Then they may be at their best and provide a much more detailed look at business models, competitive space, impact, and strategic positioning for automotive companies and other industries. We will be looking forward to the next report!