Category Archives: Impact of driverless cars

Autonomous vehicle roadmap: 2015-2030

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Two and a half years ago I wrote a note on the various views about the paths for adopting self-driving vehicles. Since then, more and more signs point towards my ‘avalanche’ model, where the adoption of self-driving cars becomes a self-sustaining, accelerating process fueled by expectations of a fundamental transformation of the auto industry and major opportunities for profit.

As a thought exercise, I have sketched a hypothetical timeline which shows how this self-accelerating global innovation process could unfold. The purpose of the timeline is to show how autonomous vehicles could come into widespread use rather quickly and what kind of market and political forces could be involved. This is an extreme of many possible futures for self-driving cars:

2015 Google launches first short-range fully autonomous vehicle service in California at NASA Ames (not on public roads) and possibly in Mountain View (small scale pilot, limited to Google employees).

2015 The first auto makers (Daimler, Honda, Nissan?) announce major strategic initiatives and major investments to counter Googles’ threat and rapidly bring vehicles capable of full autonomy (Level 4) to the market.

2015 Car2Go (Daimler’s shared mobility service) announces a roadmap for autonomy in their car fleet.

2015 Automotive industry recognizes the implications of fully autonomous vehicles (transformation of mobility, significantly lowered worldwide demand). Analysts pound auto makers on their Level-4 autonomous vehicle strategy. Share prices begin a long decline.

2016 Google announces that their short range, limited-speed fully autonomous vehicle fleet will be built by Ford, Magna or others.

2016 China launches a major program to develop and deploy shared autonomous vehicles for local mobility. It recognizes that it can reduce infrastructure expenditure, jump-start their autonomous vehicle industry, reduce the ecological footprint of mobility etc.

2016 Google expands their short range autonomous vehicle service pilot to another US city that sees little rain and no snow, e.g. Las Vegas, NV or Sun City, AZ and starts their first overseas fleet.

2016 Price for semiconductor lasers used in LIDAR sensors falls below USD 150; this reduces the hardware/computing power costs for autonomous vehicles with 3D Lidars to below 10,000 USD.

2016 Transformative potential and benefits of autonomous vehicle technology are recognized widely. There is a bitter debate about the destruction of jobs.

2017 Several European countries have now adjusted their laws to allow the operation of fully autonomous vehicles on a national scale (not in international traffic).

2017 Autonomous long haul highway trucks start testing in the US, Europe or Japan.

2017 Rental car companies launch their own autonomous mobility inititiative.

2017 An international body for regulating autonomous vehicles is being formed in cooperation between the US, Europe and Japan.

2017 Google vehicles are now capable of driving in snow on pre-mapped routes.

2017 Automotive suppliers (Continental, Bosch, Valeo, or others) announce their own autonomous vehicles or special-purpose autonomous machines.

2017 Major road infrastructure projects are downsized because autonomous and connected vehicle technology have reduced the expectations on future transportation demands.

2017 Google moves their autonomous vehicle operations into a subsidiary which then merges with Uber and starts to roll out local autonomous vehicle mobility services in many more US cities.

2017 Singapore deploys the first autonomous bus for regular service. This is widely seen as a milestone for public transport and sends many transit corporations scrambling to update their strategies.

2017 The first countries mandate specific driving behavior for self-driving cars in certain driving situations.

2018 Car2Go starts to add autonomous vehicles to their fleet.

2018 The Google subsidiary/Uber merger rolls out autonomous vehicles internationally.

2018 Heavy investment into autonomous vehicle fleets and services based on autonomous vehicles. An almost unlimited amount of capital flows into startups and schemes. Countries compete trying to gain an advantage in the emerging new industries.

2018 Experience with autonomous vehicles shows that they are indeed much safer than the average human driver. People feel safe and comfortable in fully autonomous vehicles and there is no longer any question of user acceptance. No phenomenon similar to the ‘fear of flying’ can be found among users of self-driving cars.

2019 The Vienna Convention and European Laws are updated to allow the operation of fully autonomous vehicles.

2019 Autonomous vehicles now operate in over 50 cities worldwide.

2019 Rapid growth for autonomous trucks on specific routes. In many countries, truck drivers protest but this can only delay their adoption slightly.

2019 The first high-end consumer cars capable of fully autonomous driving on a large part of the national road network become available.

2020 The first countries introduce laws that prohibit bullying of autonomous vehicles (e.g. jumping in front of it to make it stop).

2020 Bleak outlook for automobile companies. Volume is down, consumers prepare for the transitioning to fully autonomous vehicles (which are not yet widely available for the consumer) or increasingly use/expect to use shared autonomous vehicle services. The fight for survival has begun: The auto industry has its “Kodak moment”.

2022 Prices for used cars decline. Too many people switch to shared autonomous vehicle schemes. Many others sell their old vehicles prematurely because they want to switch to the much safer fully autonomous models where they don’t need to drive if they don’t want to.

2022 The cost for autonomous vehicle hardware (sensors and computing power) has come down to 1500 USD.

2022 Mass transit companies increasingly rely on autonomous vehicles for transport. Transitioning the current workforce to a transit system based on autonomous vehicles is a major organizational and political challenge.

2022 Insurance rates favor operating cars in fully autonomous mode and prompt many people to stop driving on their own.

2023 Small autonomous buses are increasingly used for medium- and long distance trips. Trains have a hard time to compete on short to medium distances with autonomous buses.

2023 Most companies require that business trips with rental cars must occur in fully autonomous mode (for safety and productivity reasons).

2025 Fleets of autonomous vehicles now operate in most cities of developed nations.

2025 Automotive companies shut down more and more plants. Major automotive countries including Germany, Sweden and Japan desperately try to prop up their OEMs.

2030 Car ownership has declined dramatically. Only 20% of the US population still own a car (200 cars for 1000 people, today: 439 cars for 1000 people).  90% of all trips now happen in fully autonomous mode. Traffic accidents and fatalities have declined dramatically.

Passenger cars in 2040: New Shell & Prognos study fails to consider the impact of autonomous vehicles

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shell-prognos-study-cover
Since 1958 Shell has been publishing scenario analyses of the German passenger vehicle market. Looking 25 years into the future until 2040, Shell and Prognos have just released a detailed analysis of the evolution of the stock of passenger cars, travel patterns and fuel consumption for this time frame. Although they look at an alternative scenario with an accelerated switch to zero emission vehicles, they conclude that “no revolution” is likely to occur until 2040. The only revolution they consider are engine-related changes: in neither scenario will electric or other alternative engine types overtake the internal combustion engine.

Unfortunately, their analysis completely overlooks the emergence of autonomous vehicles. This is more than an unfortunate oversight, because even a cursory analysis should show that fully autonomous vehicles could greatly change travel patterns: Significant parts of the population that currently don’t have access to individual motorized mobility could considerably increase the number of miles traveled. Autonomous mobility services could reduce car ownership and the stock of cars and could accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles for local trips.

How can this happen to a Shell – a company that has pioneered scenario analysis and has always emphasized that – rather than extrapolating the current situation into the future – scenario analysis aims to detect and think about alternative futures? How can their analysis miss a potential game changer for the auto industry?

For more than a year the media have bombarded the public with news about autonomous cars. There can be no doubt that the technology has made enormous progress in the last 10 years and continues to make progress at a rapid pace. No professional who looks at long-term socio-economic trends related to mobility can ignore the potential implications of autonomous vehicles any longer. There is no excuse! Of course, there is room for scepticism about the speed at which the technology will mature. But there is no room for scepticism about the speed at which self-driving cars will be adopted once they are mature (a little careful scenario analysis which looks at business models and transformative aspects of fully autonomous vehicles will quickly yield this insight…).

EU wraps up first autonomous bus demonstration in Italy with mixed results

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The European CityMobil2 project aims to demonstrate automated road transport systems in Europe, develop guidelines to design and implemented such systems and propose a legal framework for certifying such systems.

One of their key activities is to demonstrate autonomous buses operating in various European cities. From July until today (September 4) two autonomous electric buses supplied by French company Robosoft carried passengers on a 1.3km pedestrian stretch next ta a beach near Oristano in southern Italy. The small-scale demonstration operated on 38 days and transported 1600 persons in 3000 trips.

Each bus was overseen by an experienced bus driver at all times; for legal and insurance reasons all passengers had to register as ‘testers’ before boarding. Participation and acceptance – also on part of the professional bus drivers recruited for the demo (who could have been worried that the buses were an early step towards replacing them) – were very positive.

Valuable lessons were learned during the demo. Not everything worked as expected. For safety purposes, the car’s maximum speed was reduced from the planned 15 to 20km/h to 12km/h. This was due to the large number of pedestrians which were on the road at peak times and technical issues that had to do with sensor range.

The autonomous operation was also limited because of problems with GPS reception. Localization was uniquely based on GPS – which is not a very practical approach for autonomous vehicles (fortunately the next demonstrators will use additional localization mechanisms). Before the demonstrator started, trees had been cut back to ensure good GPS reception but nevertheless during todays live demonstration in a webinar GPS reception was spotty and the driver had to manually override the vehicle.

Another critical problem has hampered the project in the last few days: The sensors started to report non-existing obstacles. This causes the bus to stop immediately. Because of this problem,  the bus had to be driven manually for the live demonstration. Surprisingly the team did not have an explanation for this problem. Robosoft is epxected to analyze the problem to determine the cause. But it is hard to understand that such a critical issue is neither analyzed nor fixed when it arises.

We applaud the hard work that has been put into these demonstrators. But the demonstrator also shows that Europe needs to become much more serious in its efforts to develop autonomous vehicles if  it does not want to get completely outdistanced by the American competition.

Sources: CityMobil2 webinar on 2014-09-04, CityMobil2

Singapore to start autonomous vehicle testing on public roads in 2015

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Singapore clearly realizes the potential of autonomous vehicles for revolutionizing road transport. They already have several projects in place – including autonomous golf carts and a Navia shuttle. Now they have set up an oversight committee on Autonomous Road Transport which will support guidance on the research and implementation of self-driving cars. Besides government officials the board includes representatives from MIT, Nissan, Toyota and Continental.

Singapore wants to understand, shape and apply the technology to improve the road infrastructure. It envisions a greener future where a much smaller pool of cars provides urban mobility. In a first step, Singapore will allow testing driverless vehicles on select public roads of its one-north business district starting January of 2015. Of course, stringent safety measures must be in place. Another application of the technology for testing could be driverless buses that operate on fixed routes.
Singapore is the first city that systematically works towards a future with driverless cars. It recognizes that it needs to incorporate driverless technology into its long-term infrastructure plans already today. In addition, becoming a pioneer of this technology could lead to important competitive advantages for this city-state in the future.

Sources: Channel Asia 1,2

Proceedings of the Automated Vehicles Symposium available online

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This year’s Automated Vehicles Symposium took place in San Francisco in mid-July. Most presentations are available in PDF format with some notable exceptions (both presentations by Google and one by Daimler are not available). The presentations provide a wide range of insights into thoughts of the auto industry and policy makers. I recommend the presentations from Bosch (Tue), Department of Energy (Thur) and theCalifornia Department of Motor Vehicles (Thur).

Many presentations reported statistical insights about attitudes toward autonomous vehicles, autonomous driving etc. Unfortunately, such data is not reliable to any degree because the attitudes are likely to change significantly as the technology matures and awareness about the technology increases.

Level 3 automation was still a major topic. But a quick poll among the participants seemed to indicate that the majority of participants now believe that full autonomy (level 4) is the way to go.

Google’s self-driving cars: Implications for the auto industry and the key role of machine perception

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Google’s self driving car effort is a threat to the auto industry. The company is the clear leader in autonomous vehicle technology and several years ahead of all other auto makers, including Daimler and Volvo. By presenting an all-electric prototype of a fully autonomous two-seater in May, Google has also made clear that it is serious to become a player in individual mobility and intent on reaping the rewards of its investment in this project (which so far has likely cost a few hundred million Dollars – not an enormous amount by the standards of the auto industry for developing a new car model).

What are the implications for the auto industry? They have much more experience in all aspects of mobility and are also working on autonomous vehicles. Could Google really be a signficant threat?

The standard answer to this question has been denial: Last year the main argument was something like: They may be able to build great software but they don’t know how to design a car. Now that they have designed a steer-by-wire two-seater with redundant layout of all safety-critical components and skillfully navigated the regulations – including limiting the speed to 25mph – , the argument is updated: They may be able to build a slow-moving two seater, but they can’t build a real car. And even if they could, they could not produce it in any meaningful volume.

As they overcome each objection, denial becomes harder, and additional time is lost. The argument that Google would not be able ramp up production is misguided. Google has no intention to challenge the auto makers on their playing field. It will change the game by providing autonomous mobility services rather than selling cars. Each Google autonomous car will then reduce the demand for privately owned cars by a factor of 5 to 10. This will have an impact on auto makers. It will affect their strategies, stock prices and make production capacity much easier to acquire.

Instead of denial, auto makers need to understand the magnitude of the threat. Self-driving cars will be a disruptive force; they will change the business model of the auto industry and bring hard times to most auto makers because demand for passenger cars will fall significantly. From a global perspective this is a good thing because resources will be used much more efficiently, alternative propellants can be used much more readily within autonomous mobility services and the strain on the environment (both pollution and land-use) will fall.

But it will be hard for the auto industry to adapt to these changes. Cars have been produced for more than a century. The requisite knowledge is widely available. The same does not apply to a key ingredient for self-driving cars: Teaching a machine to perceive its environment. Perception is the core problem which determines the success of a self-driving car.

Perception is a multi-faceted problem. It has to do with sensors, with prior knowledge, machine learning and is sensitive to action and context. Unfortunately, perception is not limited to the context of driving. Self-driving cars need to understand the behavior of people and things that may be relevant to the driving context – even if their behavior has nothing to do with driving a car (e.g. kicking a ball).

Because perception is hard, it requires considerable financial and human resources to solve the problem. Google has not only the financial resources but has recruited many leading experts in this field. Even the leading auto makers would find it hard to build teams that match Google’s expertise. Joining forces with other auto makers may be the only viable strategy.

Because perception is a general capability, it is applicable to many fields beyond driving and consequently it can generate returns in many fields besides driving. This is an advantage for Google because it allows cross-fertilization with its other business areas. Google has recently bought several leading robotics companies. Advances in perception by the self-driving car group could also benefit these business areas and vice versa. Google has also started a mobile phone project (Tango) which aims to use a high end Android mobile phone to create 3D maps of the environment in real time. Advances in this space may also be useful for the self-driving car project.

As a consequence, auto manufacturers who want to beat Google to a fully autonomous car, will need to carefully consider the additional opportunities which advanced perception could bring and determine how to integrate these opportunities into their strategy. Instead of narrowing the perception task to specific driving scenarios, auto makers should consider whether they could leverage their perception activities in additional ways.

Machine perception is the core competence for succeeding with autonomous cars. Auto makers need to give this capability top priority if they want to recover the ground already lost to Google.

Google’s electric self-driving two seaters: A milestone towards autonomous mobility services

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With the unveiling of their new electric-mini cars Google’s self driving car strategy is becoming more and more evident. By the standards of the auto industry, these cars have many obvious drawbacks: they are very small, can only seat two persons, speed is limited to 25mph, range is also quite limited, the big sensor on top is seen by some (including Daimler’s CEO Zetsche) as an eyesore. They will be hard to sell.

But this is not the point. Google has set their sight on reinventing mobility, not just on building a self-driving car. These cars no longer need to be tethered to a person; they can roam freely and provide shared mobility services to anyone at prices that are significantly lower than individually-owned cars. This is the picture, that Google’s project leader Chris Urmson has in mind when he envisions cities without parking lots (no more need to park these cars, they can transport others in the mean time).

Google’s investment in Uber, their clear focus on fully autonomous driving are all parts of the same picture. It will be very hard for the auto industry to compete on this field because it means cannibalizing their own products, completely transforming their purchase-oriented business model which has served them well for more than a century towards a service-oriented model and fundamentally rethinking the concept of a car.

Google won’t need to sell these cars. They will organize mobility. They already excel at mapping and travel planning, but in the future they will send a car to pick you up wherever you are and bring you where you want to go. They will predict, balance and aggregate mobility demand. Billions are spent for individual mobility. Google should be able to grab a significant share of this market once their mobility-on-demand services are ready.

United Kingdom prepares to play leading role in driverless car revolution

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The country which started the industrial revolution and the first revolution in mobility is determined not to sit on the sidelines as the next mobility revolution unfolds. The UK government wants to accelerate the adoption of autonomous vehicle technology and ensure that the UK plays a prominent role by establishing a UK city or region as a test and demonstration site for self-driving cars.

To start this process, it convened about 100 people in London in Mid-February to discuss the criteria for site selection. The city/region will be funded with 10 Mio Pounds. The very efficiently managed workshop rapidly generated insights about success criteria for such sites.

There seemed to be much consensus that fully autonomous vehicles hold the most promise; they will provide completely new opportunities in mobility services, applications and business models. There was some disagreement as to the state of autonomous technology. While some argued that the technology is basically there, others voiced concerns that significant challenges still remain. Disagreement was also visible with respect to standardization and interoperability. While some argued that the vehicles should be standardized and easily transferred to new locations, others argued that imposing such requirements would be too early and would accomplish little.

A representative from Google stressed the importance of speed in the implementation – a comment that reflected a sense of urgency which most participants seemed to share: There is only a short window of opportunity to gain a leadership position in this rapidly moving field.

Within Europe, the United Kingdom has some unique advantages for the early implementation of self-driving cars: It is not bound by the stipulations of the Vienna Convention on Traffic that every car must be controlled by a driver at all times. Unlike most European Countries (except Spain) it has never ratified the convention. In addition, its car industry is not as dominant as in many other countries (the UK is on position 17 of the 40 nations listed by the Organization of Motorvehicle Manufacturers (OICA) with respect to the number of employees in the car industry as percentage of the whole workforce; In contrast, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Germany and Spain are among the top five. This also means that the UK has less to fear from the disruption of the auto industry which fully autonomous vehicles might cause. At the same time, the UK has an excellent industry and research base, top universities including Prof. Newmanns Oxford Mobile Robotics Group, and already has a head start with more traditional electric driverless pods operating at Heathrow.

Given that another project is already under way to implement 100 self-driving pods in Milton-Keynes between 2015 and 2017(funded at much higher rates), the UK might indeed achieve a critical mass to become a key player in this autonomous vehicle revolution.

The race for leadership in autonomous cars is on: Volvo to deploy 100 self-driving cars by 2017

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2013 has been a year with a lot of buzz around self-driving cars. While Google has been mostly silent about their progress, many other players have demonstrated prototypes of  autonomous cars (including Mercedes, Nissan) and announced intentions to bring more and more autonomous features to the market.

Now Volvo Cars has announced a project to deploy 100 highly autonomous cars in the Swedish city of Gothenburg by 2017. The cars will drive without the need for human supervision on selected roads in Gothenburg (including motorways, regular surface streets etc.). In autonomous mode their speed will be limited to a maximum of 70km/h. The cars will not yet be able to drive fully autonously; they may have to return control to the driver in certain areas or traffic situations (however the car will be able to handle all short-term traffic situations without help from a driver). The cars will use 360 degree sensors including cameras, Lidar and radar. More information about the project is available in a video by Volvo.

The project is very significant because of its scope, short timeline until implementation and because it involves key partners such as the City of Gothenburg and the Swedish government (Swedish Transport Administration and Swedish Transport Agency) who may have to remove any remaining legal road blocks.

With this project the race has begun to establish autonomous vehicle technology in real-live urban settings. Much as we have predicted, the cars’ autonomous operation will be limited to a very specific region: Only selected roads in withing Gothenburg which  are carefully mapped. The cars will rely on the mobile communications to receive map updates as needed. Thus Volvo will have to build an operations center which supports the autonomous operation on a day-to-day basis and issues updates to the cars for changes, construction zones etc.

Volvo Cars has reported losses in the first half of 2013 of about 90 million USD on revenues of almost 9 billion USD; with the global economic recovery this may have improved in the second half of 2013. Nevertheless, as one of the smaller car makers,  leadership in the autonomous space may be a good strategy for survival.

It is not clear, however, whether Volvo realizes that much of the growth in this technology will come from fleets of self-driving cars operating in limited areas. If Volvo really wants to profit from the growth opportunities in this area, they will have to re-think their model structure and introduce smaller, probably even electric cars aimed at short-range fleet operations. Being owned by Geely, a Chinese automotive company, Volvo could be in an ideal position to introduce the new paradigm of autonomous mobility to China (which would greatly benefit from fleets of short-range autonomous electric vehicles for urban, pollution-free mobility).

The project shows that autonomous technology has entered a new phase where real projects are being implemented which require the cooperation of car makers, technology providers, cities and governments. The British project in Milton Keynes is another example as well as the project to rethink urban mobility in Singapore (where the French company Induct are involved with their Navia autonomous shuttle as well as MIT).

Sources: Lindholmen Science Park, Volvo

Will Britain be first to deploy fleets of autonomous cars?

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In another sign that the race for leadership in autonomous car technology is heating up British newspapers (1,2,3) report that UK’s Automotive Council is investing 77 million Euros to deploy a fleet of 100 driverless vehicles in Milton Keynes by 2017. The vehicles will provide taxi services between downtown and the railway station. The vehicles will be fully electric, can carry up to two persons plus baggage and have a maximum speed of 19 km/h. They will be equipped with sensors and software for autonomous navigation. Details have not been finalized but it appears that the project plans to gradually increase the vehicle’s range and autonomy over time. When the first cars will be placed in service in 2015, they will operate on the sidewalk on dedicated lanes. As the project progresses, the vehicles’ range may be extended to include other areas; however, the vehicles will be limited to sidewalks where they will mix with pedestrian traffic or have their own lanes.

The Automotive Council is funded by the British Government and both the Secretary of Business and the Minister of State for Universities strongly support the project. Partners involved in the project are Cambridge University and ARUP, an engineering firm that also oversaw the development of the Heathrow Autonomous PRT Airport Shuttle. British firms already have begun exporting the autonomous PRT technology to other countries and the government hopes that this technology initiative may result in a leading position for the United Kingdom in the upcoming wave of autonomous mobility.

The Milton Keynes project has many advantages: The low speed and limited range allows gaining experience with fleets of mobile taxis while minimizing risks. Running on sidewalks rather than on city streets also reduces potential legal issues. By the time the project reaches its full scale in 2017, it should not be hard to apply many of their learnings to faster moving electric vehicles that can operate on regular urban streets at speeds of up to 50 km/h. The slow speed will also help to secure confidence and trust by the customers. The project will likely have positive effects on pollution by reducing the number trips driven with conventional cars, reduce accidents, increase the adoption of electric vehicles and reduce the costs for local transportation. Thus this project may pave the way for subsequent deployment of autonomous mobility services across the UK and the world.

Whether the Milton Keynes autonomous vehicle fleet will be the first autonomous vehicle fleet world wide which is not limited to separate tracks remains to be seen. There are strong contenders in the United States where Google is likely to introduce similar services (though on city streets) in some locations by 2017, in Singapore where Induct is experimenting with last mile driverless shuttles and probably also Zoox, a new service that will be unwrapped at the upcoming LA Auto Show.

We also expect key automotive manufacturers to announce such initiatives in the next two years. Daimler is particularly well placed for launching autonomous mobility services. In addition, we expect China to make an autonomous mobility services strategy a top priority within the next two years.

The race for the top position in the coming wave of driverless mobility services is still open. But one conclusion should be obvious: The fast path towards fully autonomous vehicles is not based on perfecting driver assistance systems for consumer cars but rather by deploying regionally focused fleets of special-purpose autonomous (and mostly electric) vehicles for urban mobility.

Addition (2013-11-10): A related Automotive Council presentation